A programmer with 10 years experience has been looking for a job in New York City for over a year and a half with no luck.

An employment agent representing former defense industry programmers says they are "usually shunned by the industry. I get a tremendous number of resumes from them, but I can't place them."

Yet the computer industry claims there's a severe software labor shortage. The Information Technology Association of America, an 11,000-member trade association, says 350,000 positions are open today for programmers, system analysts and computer engineers and that the shortage could send the industry "into a sustained tailspin."

What gives?

"Those claims are just vaporware," says computer science professor Norman Matloff, who recently testified before a Congressional committee on the matter. "The fact is that there is no such shortage."

Employers hire only about 2 percent of their software applicants, Matloff determined after conducting interviews with a number of firms, including Microsoft. That industry giant makes offers to only 25 percent of the applicants who make it as far as the interview stage. Wages haven't increased substantially in the industry either -- the usual outcome when employer demand outpaces supply.

What is in short supply, Matloff says, are recent graduates and immigrants -- employees who are willing to work for lower wages. "Age discrimination is rampant in the industry."

Firms claim that older workers lack the most up-to-date software skills. But, said Matloff, "any competent programmer can learn a new software skill quite quickly" -- it's just a pretext for avoiding experienced workers who command higher wages and are more likely to have family responsibilities that limit their overtime work.

Matloff cites government figures showing that the rate of unemployment among programmers over age 50 is 17 percent -- a figure that "actually understates the problem because many leave the field when they cannot find programming work."

Some 20 years after receiving a bachelor's degree, only 20 percent of computer science graduates are still working in the field, according to the 1993 National Survey of College Graduates -- compared to a 52 percent rate for civil engineering graduates.

In addition to recent grads, the industry is increasingly training its sights on foreign workers. The number of work visas requested by the industry for computer programmers increased by 352 percent in 1990-95, while the number of jobs increased only 35 percent. Studies by other researchers have found these foreign nationals are hired for salaries 20 percent to 40 percent lower than those received by their native counterparts. They are often willing to work for less because they are being sponsored for green cards by the employers -- a form of nonsalary compensation.

And the industry has persuaded Congress to increase the number of foreign workers. This spring bills were introduced in both the House and the Senate to substantially increase the number of visas for immigrants with technical skills.

It will hurt the industry in the long run, believes Matloff. Rapid turnover, less experienced workers, premium wages for a select few with highly specific skills in what's "hot" -- all work against innovation and the completion of software projects on time and without bugs. "Employers," he said, "are just shooting themselves in the foot."

More information can be found on Matloff's Web site: http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.html.